10/28/2011 Avid's stock sinks to new low....

[TOM@METRO]

For those who have an interest in this.

http://www.thestreet.com/r/ratings/r...tail/AVID.html

[Paxalot]

It's time that people demanded that public companies put a limit of 20X the lowest paid employee as the maximum total benefits the CEO can accrue.

They do this at Sony and Toyota and they still manage to rule the world.

In the current Crony Capitalist environment CEOs are rewarded for destroying companies so they can have 21 mansions. This has happened thousands of times over since 2000 in the USA.

[mlange]

AVID is now at $6.50/share

From US Hot Socks:
Avid Technology Inc. (AVID, $6.76, -$1.14, -14.43%) posted third-quarter results that fell short of analysts' expectation and Brigantine Advisors cut its stock-investment rating on the audio and video technology company to hold. The firm said that with issues in Europe and weakness on the consumer side "the time to hit the growth phase of this turnaround has been pushed out even further."

[Emcha_audio]

Originally Posted by TOM@METRO

For those who have an interest in this.

http://www.thestreet.com/r/ratings/r...tail/AVID.html

It's bad that that even them say to trade your stocks.. I'm still holding mine for a little bit....

[John_Toolbox]

Originally Posted by cboyer1951

What happened from 1995-1997 and from 2000-2003? The two major dips in the past?

I'll look for a Pro Tools history timeline I guess.
Nevermind, that Avid stock, 'not' Pro Tools, duh!!!

Chuck

During both of those time periods for digidesign, an introduction of new TDM hardware happened, I believe that mix|24 systems came out around 1997, and HD was introduced around 2002, not to mention the transition from OS9 to OSX, a lot of OS9 plugins never made the transition, so people had to buy something else to replace them.

My guess is that when a new pro level system is released, it takes a few years for the bulk of the pro customer base to adopt it. Once the new product has been announced, people stop investing in anything related to it's predecessor, because they know their old system is doomed for obsolescence. So there is a period of income dropping from the old systems not selling any more, and the new systems not selling yet at the same time because most people in this business simply can't afford to upgrade every time something new comes out.

This announcement has basically given the HD users the message that all of their hardware and TDM plugins are soon to be obsolete. This means that it's not likely anyone is going to sink money into these systems from here on out, so any revenue from selling HD cards, TDM plugins, etc. is going to drop, if not be completely eliminated. It's going to take a while for anyone to jump on a full blown HDX system, so there's not going to be a steady revenue stream from that yet either.. I personally think that that majority of the HD user base is going to wait until a 64 bit version of PTHDX is introduced before they even think about starting the transition. Even then, this time around the plugin format has changed completely, and there is not going to be legacy interface support, so it might take even longer for people to make the transition because you'll basically need to replace everything.

[Emcha_audio]

Originally Posted by John_Toolbox

During both of those time periods for digidesign, an introduction of new TDM hardware happened, I believe that mix|24 systems came out around 1997, and HD was introduced around 2002, not to mention the transition from OS9 to OSX, a lot of OS9 plugins never made the transition, so people had to buy something else to replace them.

My guess is that when a new pro level system is released, it takes a few years for the bulk of the pro customer base to adopt it. Once the new product has been announced, people stop investing in anything related to it's predecessor, because they know their old system is doomed for obsolescence. So there is a period of income dropping from the old systems not selling any more, and the new systems not selling yet at the same time because most people in this business simply can't afford to upgrade.

This announcement has basically given the HD users the message that all of their hardware and TDM plugins are soon to be obsolete. This means that it's not likely anyone is going to sink money into these systems from here on out, so any revenue from selling HD cards, TDM plugins, etc. is going to drop, if not be completely eliminated. It's going to take a while for anyone to jump on a full blown HDX system, so there's not going to be a steady revenue stream from that yet either.. I personally think that that majority of the HD user base is going to wait until a 64 bit version of PTHDX is introduced before they even think about starting the transition. Even then, this time around the plugin format has changed completely, and there is not going to be legacy interface support, so it might take even longer for people to make the transition because you'll basically need to replace everything.

And that again was a marketing and ceo blunder. To announce the new HDX card before it was actually shippable. That leaves a month gap of sales revnue that are not covered. I'm not sure if that many people ( in the hundreds or thousands) would pre-order the product.

"Yes it's here, but you can't buy it yet, "if all goes well in november" But not now. *hush hush* we're still taking the time to see if we will take them out or not"

[danander11]

At $6.45 now. 3 1/2 more hours of this might see $5 stock for Avid.. not good on many levels.

Time for the top-tier to go. WITHOUT their bonus and handshakes...

[TOM@METRO]

Originally Posted by John_Toolbox

During both of those time periods for digidesign, an introduction of new TDM hardware happened, I believe that mix|24 systems came out around 1997, and HD was introduced around 2002, not to mention the transition from OS9 to OSX, a lot of OS9 plugins never made the transition, so people had to buy something else to replace them.

My guess is that when a new pro level system is released, it takes a few years for the bulk of the pro customer base to adopt it. Once the new product has been announced, people stop investing in anything related to it's predecessor, because they know their old system is doomed for obsolescence. So there is a period of income dropping from the old systems not selling any more, and the new systems not selling yet at the same time because most people in this business simply can't afford to upgrade.

This announcement has basically given the HD users the message that all of their hardware and TDM plugins are soon to be obsolete. This means that it's not likely anyone is going to sink money into these systems from here on out, so any revenue from selling HD cards, TDM plugins, etc. is going to drop, if not be completely eliminated. It's going to take a while for anyone to jump on a full blown HDX system, so there's not going to be a steady revenue stream from that yet either.. I personally think that that majority of the HD user base is going to wait until a 64 bit version of PTHDX is introduced before they even think about starting the transition. Even then, this time around the plugin format has changed completely, and there is not going to be legacy interface support, so it might take even longer for people to make the transition because you'll basically need to replace everything.

If what you say here is the case John; this hardware rollout should have been recognized as a potentially serious blow to the health of the company. Would it not be the responsibility of upper management to foresee this outcome and be prepared for it? A giant difference here as compared with those past years that you mention (beyond the state of the economy) is that now, DSP solutions are not required for “just Getting the job done” as they were in the past. We can get by with Native just fine if we have to. So, anything negative that will occur as a result of a new DSP hardware solution will be at greater risk of the phenomena you describe, if in fact there is merit to it. Your theory (it would seem to me) might highlight even further, a deficiency in the presence of visionary skills amongst the leadership. Again, if it holds merit.

[Lee Blaske]

Originally Posted by danander11

At $6.45 now. 3 1/2 more hours of this might see $5 stock for Avid.. not good on many levels.

Time for the top-tier to go. WITHOUT their bonus and handshakes...

I have not been a big Avid/Digi fan in recent years, but in some ways, I don't know if I'd be so quick to heap tons of blame on the top-tier right now.

Too much is changing, and things are changing too rapidly. A company like Avid has a LOT of shareholder expectations, and they're also really locked down by many, many years of legacy systems and the responsibility to maintain standards and compatibility. The weight of all of this is oppressive. Running Avid is like piloting the largest oil tanker out on the high seas. A huge ship needs to plan turns and navigation a long time in advance. And if mistakes are made, the results are catastrophic (e.g. The Titanic). Meanwhile , the competition gets to race around in a Miata.

I was around back in the NED days and owned an EXTREMELY expensive NED system back in the days when the Digidesign guys were working out of a garage (I remember seeing them at an Emu get-together, when they were selling an editor for the original Mac, and had their display set up on a card table). The thought, at the time, that Digidesign would put NED out of business seemed silly. But, it happened. Their comparatively inexpensive cards in a comparatively inexpensive mass-produced Mac was the way to go at the time. NED was too late to compete.

But today, the question is if a really big, highly capitalized audio/video company really has any future in the market. How can Avid compete against a company like Apple that pretty much distributes Logic Pro and FCP as a gift for buying a Mac? Or, how can they compete against a product like Reaper that sells for $60, works on Mac/Windows/Linux, and supports a huge number of formats, plug-ins, etc., etc. (and is 64 bit, has track freeze, etc., etc.).

There are probably still some people who can use the latest, full-blown HDX system (if you're, say, posting a Hollywood blockbuster like Avatar), but most people don't need that. And, most people today don't want to spend tens of thousands of dollars on dedicated hardware that will be an obsolete dead end in the not too distant future. Also, since Avid is selling many different systems at many different price points, it needs to hobble software to make the more expensive systems more compelling. Compare that to Reaper being $60 for the top-of-the-line (and only) version. I've also heard rumors that with the next release, Logic will be a single, full-featured version.

It's my understanding that there are only four people who develop Reaper. Can Avid match that to be competitive?

Sometimes, things change so much, and so rapidly, that there is simply nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. I fear that Avid is being backed into that corner.

[John_Toolbox]

Originally Posted by TOM@METRO

If what you say here is the case John; this hardware rollout should have been recognized as a potentially serious blow to the health of the company. Would it not be the responsibility of upper management to foresee this outcome and be prepared for it? A giant difference here as compared with those past years that you mention (beyond the state of the economy) is that now, DSP solutions are not required for “just Getting the job done” as they were in the past. We can get by with Native just fine if we have to. So, anything negative that will occur as a result of a new DSP hardware solution will be at greater risk of the phenomena you describe, if in fact there is merit to it. Your theory (it would seem to me) might highlight even further, a deficiency in the presence of visionary skills amongst the leadership. Again, if it holds merit.

I do think that the upper management of avid considered this, in fact I would not be surprised if the higher software upgrade prices might have been intended to make up for this lost revenue. But as you mention, there is a lot more than just a crappy economy that has changed in this industry since 2002, and these things very well could have been underestimated... Especially if the people making these decisions aren't in touch with the way things have been changing in this industry.

Another take on the price would be to compare it to the price of everything else. The price of gas, food, and everything except real estate seems to be increasing without end in sight. You could technically argue that to justify the price of software increasing, but in reality it just means that everyone is being squeezed that much tighter by the economy, and that much less likely to be able to afford a software upgrade.