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  #11  
Old 05-26-2023, 08:46 PM
BScout BScout is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

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Originally Posted by Tweakhead View Post
My preferred new owners would be:
1. Solid State Logic
2. Focusrite
3. Universal Audio
SSL "merged" with another company to stay afloat.
Focusrite is pretty extended on purchasing (low cost) subsidiaries Novation, Adam Audio, Martin Audio, and Sequential. All in the low million dollar range -- they aren't sent to have capital for the billion dollar range.
Universal Audio went through layoffs recently and rethinking their strategy (another company faltering at the moment)

None of them have the interest in broadcast/video market which would be needed for Avid.
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  #12  
Old 05-26-2023, 08:48 PM
audiolex1 audiolex1 is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

I only mentioned it because it was news and I still can't find the amount of stake LVS had in the company.

I have to assume they were the single largest share holder considering how they mentioned it news wise.
Ergo the mention of "sale"

Honestly the whole mention was odd in how it was framed, and there is just too little detail.

Darryl is spot on as with the spike in the shares, someone would need to come in at a premium though paying off debt isn't usually part of the deal. It would just be a restructure with said banks.
But beyond that, there is no contract that would force funding for restructuring or product investments.

And it is a pipe dream to think out of house engineering would go away, but since Ukraine things have gotten better.

If AVID were to come to a position of insolvency, Hollywood would buy it collectively. Between the studios they have enough money and could keep it going. That is the most likely scenario.

Post Production development trumps music development by 100's of millions.
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  #13  
Old 05-26-2023, 09:19 PM
Darryl Ramm Darryl Ramm is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

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Originally Posted by audiolex1 View Post
Darryl is spot on as with the spike in the shares, someone would need to come in at a premium though paying off debt isn't usually part of the deal. It would just be a restructure with said banks.
But beyond that, there is no contract that would force funding for restructuring or product investments.
Any highly leverage acquisition needs to have a sellable (to their investors/LPs) thesis about what they are going to do to make this company much more successful. Anybody raising debt to purchase the company may well want to flush the JP Morgan loan and get out from under the EBITDA covenant there, like if it's worth ~$1B in a leveraged acquisition it's got to have a big upside and significant changes/implements to realize... think drastic changes/restructuring and nobody wants what would then be a minor debt holder with powerful covenants. Now if JP Morgan partners with others to do an LBO... but but but multiple past investor lead attempt have been made so I'm just not seeing that be a thing unless an absolute fire sale. So that leaves Microsoft, Adobe, Apple, ..., and my suspicion is they just have lots better things to do and already compete in some areas where sorting that out would be a distracting mess. And there may be an anti-trust/competition issue. Still I expect those options would be the most likely. Somewhere there is sell IB team dialing for dollars and hoping to make a few $M on a deal... hopefully Avid has somebody decent on board, some of the smaller players are just not great at doing this, and the team shopping the company sends a strong signal to potential acquirers.
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  #14  
Old 05-26-2023, 09:36 PM
audiolex1 audiolex1 is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darryl Ramm View Post
Any highly leverage acquisition needs to have a sellable (to their investors/LPs) thesis about what they are going to do to make this company much more successful. Anybody raising debt to purchase the company may well want to flush the JP Morgan loan and get out from under the EBITDA covenant there, like if it's worth ~$1B in a leveraged acquisition it's got to have a big upside and significant changes/implements to realize... think drastic changes/restructuring and nobody wants what would then be a minor debt holder with powerful covenants. Now if JP Morgan partners with others to do an LBO... but but but multiple past investor lead attempt have been made so I'm just not seeing that be a thing unless an absolute fire sale. So that leaves Microsoft, Adobe, Apple, ..., and my suspicion is they just have lots better things to do and already compete in some areas where sorting that out would be a distracting mess. And there may be an anti-trust/competition issue. Still I expect those options would be the most likely. Somewhere there is sell IB team dialing for dollars and hoping to make a few $M on a deal... hopefully Avid has somebody decent on board, some of the smaller players are just not great at doing this, and the team shopping the company sends a strong signal to potential acquirers.
You must have been writing fast. I don't see an LBO in this at all.

There isn't a possibility of anti trust at all because there are too many other options. And Film and TV make up a small proportion but heavy dollars.

I haven't done enough digging to see LVS position. There is enough of a stake in Hollywood though.
When AVID got d-listed I said there might come a point where the studios come together and purchase AVID.
And they could do it easily.

There is no other option in the Film and TV industry and the US isn't going to just go Nuendo.

However, considering the current economic climate and the studios (sans Universal) are looking to find savings.

Personally I think if Film and TV owned it, it would grow. Just make sure you keep your licenses up to date.
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  #15  
Old 05-27-2023, 01:48 AM
BScout BScout is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

No studio is going to buy it. On productions, Avid edit gear is rented in (if only for the creative accounting that's done for film production LLCs.) WB Discovery is cost cutting right now and Disney is shoring up from the losses of (their real money makers) the theme parks from the past years. Studios aren't doing well and the strikes and the restructuring deals (distributors/streamers/networks only wanting in-house productions) already have them all trying to keep shareholder confidence.

And all audio post-production companies are hurting financially to try to pull off something like this (Formosa Group? Todd Soundelux? -- nope.) Studios have been slashing post-production budgets for years -- it's a race to the bottom. No extra capital floating around.

If there's one company that could do it, it'd probably be Yamaha. Years (and years and years ago), that was actually on the table in two ways: Avid buying Steinberg and integrating/merging and then later came up, Yamaha buying Avid. And, of course, Yamaha owns Steinberg now.
The other thought is Dolby (though I don't know how their financials are doing) and if they suddenly had a preferred DAW, that could hurt their business model.
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Last edited by BScout; 05-27-2023 at 12:48 PM. Reason: typo
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  #16  
Old 05-27-2023, 03:05 AM
noiseboyuk noiseboyuk is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

I won't pretend to know a lot about any of this, but there seems an awful lot of widly fanciful and over-confident speculation. Why do people keep talking about music and audio companies? Quite apart from Avid being better known for video, LVS is an investment management company. Seems more logical to me that these kinds of companies would be more likely buyers.

Every company has a different take and things they are looking for. In the Insider Moneky article, they quote the LVS investment newsletter as saying:

Quote:
Our investment thesis was that Avid is the ‘arms dealer’ to the streaming war and would benefit to the extent that Netflix, Disney, HBO, and others ramp up spending on content. Our view today is that the streaming war is over and Netflix won.
That last sentence in particular is very odd, as is the entire premise. Other companies may well have a different take on the things to look for in the rapidly changing market.

From my humble perspective, I think Avid's main problem is that it hasn't moved with the times, so less likely to be able to embrace new ways of working, especially around AI. Adobe are vastly more advanced there. I don't know if all investors will be thinking on these lines, but given the huge industry changes that are all around us (not so much the individual performance of a streamer), it would seem a sensible metric to me.

In our humble audio sphere, while Avid are adding improvements to marker tracks as a big new feature while Adobe and Descript are spearheading an audio revolution, I do wonder how they will compete.
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  #17  
Old 05-27-2023, 04:34 AM
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unkJE unkJE is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

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Originally Posted by BScout View Post
SSL "merged" with another company to stay afloat...
Knowing zilch of balance sheets and even less about high-finance, I hope James Gordon (CEO Audiotonix Group Ltd) lashes out and buys Pro Tools!

Strength in numbers … and a common goal that might breed some magnificent offspring, considering:

SSL acquire console designers Harrison

Published 13/4/23
https://www.soundonsound.com/news/ss...gners-harrison

Harrison 32C Channel - Now You Can Have Good, Fast And Cheap!

https://youtu.be/p-hUydxwNkc

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SSL Sold to New Owners Audiotonix

December 20th, 2017 by David Weiss
https://sonicscoop.com/ssl-sold-new-owners-audiotonix/

Brands owned by Audiotonix

https://www.audiotonix.com/our-brands/
Allen & Heath
Calrec
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GROUP ONE
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Last edited by unkJE; 05-29-2023 at 01:04 AM. Reason: more info
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  #18  
Old 05-27-2023, 05:58 AM
JingleDjango JingleDjango is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tweakhead View Post
My preferred new owners would be:
1. Solid State Logic
2. Focusrite
3. Universal Audio
Maybe these are unrealistic options, as pointed out in the replies, but I agree that SSL or Focusrite would probably make good stewards of the product.
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  #19  
Old 05-27-2023, 09:37 AM
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TOM@METRO TOM@METRO is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

My crystal ball is currently in the shop, so I can only say "this is an interesting conversation."
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  #20  
Old 05-27-2023, 11:24 AM
Darryl Ramm Darryl Ramm is offline
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Default Re: LVS to sell AVID

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Originally Posted by audiolex1 View Post
You must have been writing fast. I don't see an LBO in this at all.

There isn't a possibility of anti trust at all because there are too many other options. And Film and TV make up a small proportion but heavy dollars.
Antitrust/monopoly in both in the USA and Europe absolutely could be an issue with large acquirers, Avid represents a significant market share especially in video and film. And those smaller players may well stir the pot here to get attention.

Quote:
Personally I think if Film and TV owned it, it would grow. Just make sure you keep your licenses up to date
Besides the industry just not going to find $1B+ to invest here name the last time that competitors came together to purchase a technology company, or name a technology company run by committee that survived.

Within the Film & Television (and game authoring) ecosystem you have folks like Autodesk who clearly could fund an acquisition. Their Media & Entertainment business is under competitive pressure of their own it is hard to see why a company like that would take on Avid with yet another set of challenges.

I like the suggestion of Yamaha. Yamaha clearly have the financial power to make this happen, with their consoles and Steinberg acquisition make this interesting but would they be willing to go through all this pain to sort out Pro Tools and Nuendo, and Avid control surfaces and Nuage, and Avid Live and Yamaha Mixers/Consoles. I sure could see them wanting Media Composer's business and overall more USA market share. Again, antitrust is may be an issue.

Last edited by Darryl Ramm; 05-27-2023 at 01:07 PM.
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