PT 10 release. What went good and not so good.

[ChazC]

Originally Posted by Dism

In the end, those who don't want to pay for it don't, and those who want the new features eventually will.

Exactly - but this is the first time we've had an update so soon after the last one and at such a cost.

People demanded 3rd party interfaces and got it; now Avid don't have the hardware income to rely on, obviously the software is going to be more expensive. But instead of making the outright purchase more expensive, which they can't if they want to stay competitive, they decide to shaft pervious customers with an insanely high upgrade price structure.

I have no doubt that the $1000 hd software only upgrade is to try to get HD users to do a hardware trade for the new HDX, but as of yet no one knows what those trade ins are going to be - that in itself is a huge mistake by Avids marketing team. I wonder if Avid are holding those trade in prices back to see just what reaction they get from current customers (read: hoping they'd get away with it & could keep any trade in offer suitably average). Looking at the majority of ppls reactions on here I would say that HD users can (well, at least should) expect to see some VERY attractive hardware trade ins for HDX systems due to the current outcry. Still doesn't make the current upgrade pricing 'right' though whichever way you look at it.

[FilterDecay]

Originally Posted by ChazC

Exactly - but this is the first time we've had an update so soon after the last one and at such a cost.

People demanded 3rd party interfaces and got it; now Avid don't have the hardware income to rely on, obviously the software is going to be more expensive. But instead of making the outright purchase more expensive, which they can't if they want to stay competitive, they decide to shaft pervious customers with an insanely high upgrade price structure.

then why is it cheaper for people who dot use their hardware?

hurr. durr.

[Dism]

Originally Posted by getz76

Uh, what? Hope you were talking about the guy in the mirror.

Stock price (and its extension, market capitalization) includes the market's best estimate of a value of a company based on available information.

Avid's "market share" would be included in that valuation. Most valuations are done using a discounted future cash flow; basically, take a look at present cash flow, add in an inflation, add in a growth, discount it at the current cost of capital, and adjust for the Company's net tangible assets. If you ask 10 quants the same question, you are going to get 10 different valuations, but the market is pretty good at finding a pretty reasonable price when you factor in risk profiles for an issuer. And AVID has enough trade volume that the price should be close enough to reflect some type of market consensus.

So, if someone wanted to buy Avid today, they would be looking at shelling out $277 million plus an acquisition premium since Avid is currently a going concern of some percentage (usually in the range of 10 to 75%, depending on if the company is shopping itself or if it is a hostile takeover).

Pretty simple, really.

The above isn't an opinion on Avid, just an observation.

Right, but the price doesn't directly reflect market capitalization. That's my point. A company can have a $100 per share stock, but only have 1000 shares. It's like when you compare Apple to Google. Google has a much higher stock value, but Apple has an insanely disproportionate market cap... hence why they are a more valuable company despite their lower share value.

[Dizzi45Z]

Originally Posted by ChazC

I have no doubt that the $1000 hd software only upgrade is to try to get HD users to do a hardware trade for the new HDX

I don't get why people are saying this. I thought the hardware exchanges did NOT include the Pro Tools 10 upgrade.

[getz76]

Originally Posted by Dism

Right, but the price doesn't directly reflect market capitalization. That's my point. A company can have a $100 per share stock, but only have 1000 shares. It's like when you compare Apple to Google. Google has a much higher stock value, but Apple has an insanely disproportionate market cap... hence why they are a more valuable company despite their lower share value.

If you are going to lecture on the understanding of capital markets, get the basics right. Market share is very different from market capitalization.

The point others were making was Avid's price is down from an all-time high of nearly $67 during 2005 to single digits today without significant, a nearly 10-fold decrease, and over the same period outstanding shares have decreased less than 10%. That means Avid went from a market capitalization of nearly $3 billion to around $275 million. Just take a look at Page 20 of Avid's most recent Form 10-k.

[gives]

Originally Posted by Dizzi45Z

Exactly. I explain that exact scenario in my lengthy original post. (actually it wasn't really clear, I just edited my original post to make that point more clear)

What I don't think everyone gets is the message Avid is sending here. For everybody who is saying they are not going to upgrade, you are missing the point. Avid is saying... "If you do not pay for this upgrade, then you will pay for this upgrade next year along with the Pro Tools 11 upgrade and then some." That is the business model I don't like and terrifies me.

Also, I wanted to make the point that along with the high prices, many people are likely wondering if they want to stay on this train if upgrade prices are going to be like this. Is next year's upgrade price going to be even higher? Why not?

I just bought a NEW Avid HD IO "Flagship" interface in late July and was told by a dealer that I would be best to just sell it on ebay, because I would have to buy a new INterface with the NEW HDX CArds. Seems unfair to me.
They really need to change that. When I bought my FIRST system in 1992 it cost me about 15k for 4 tracks of audio, but I have upgraded with NO complaints until now and paid a lot for the things that I have. I am just asking for a reasonable explanation for this kind of "deal" Avid is proposing. I thought that the new Avid Interface in their commercials was touted as the way to go for "high quality audio" and A to D, so I went for it this summer!

Hope they change their mind, otherwise I wil probably stay where I am.

G

G

[abt]

I was going to get into HD earlier this year but thanks to community advice (this forum I believe) the release of native was bought to my attention. PT9 was a good price and the new direction seemed to be well received by most.

Eventually I saved my coins and traded in my 003 for a native omni bundle. I was happy with the purchase. Now less than 6 months on to hear the news PT10 was here I was excited then to find out it's going to cost me $1k to get it has left more than just a bad taste in my mouth.

[Dism]

Originally Posted by getz76

If you are going to lecture on the understanding of capital markets, get the basics right. Market share is very different from market capitalization.

The point others were making was Avid's price is down from an all-time high of nearly $67 during 2005 to single digits today without significant, a nearly 10-fold decrease, and over the same period outstanding shares have decreased less than 10%. That means Avid went from a market capitalization of nearly $3 billion to around $275 million. Just take a look at Page 20 of Avid's most recent Form 10-k.

Yes, I understand that, I mispoke about market share, I admit. And I'm not here to argue that Avid hasn't had a significant drop over the years.

My point is that most people just look at the number and don't have a clue what it means. Market value also doesn't necessarily directly reflect business decisions, either. I'm not going to get into what a f***ed up situation Wall St. is right now, but at this point... All I'm trying to drive home is that stock value doesn't mean much of anything right now, especially since it doesn't affect peoples opinion of whether or not PT should be 64 bit or whether AAX is a good idea.

I'd give it at least until next Q before making any statements about how PT10 is affecting Avid's stock. We must also remember that Pro Tools is a fairly small part of Avid, comparatively.

[getz76]

Originally Posted by Dism

We must also remember that Pro Tools is a fairly small part of Avid, comparatively.

Not trying to pick on you, but you keep on getting it very wrong.

Based on their latest annual, Pro Tools makes up 16% of total revenues. That is significant. That does not include control surfaces or ancillary products. In fact, audio products are equal to video products at this point. Just look at page 3 in the 2010 annual. Pro Tools accounts for 16% of revenues while Media Composer is at 13%.

Pro Tools is effectively half of Avid at this point. That's more than a small part.

[Dism]

Originally Posted by getz76

Not trying to pick on you, but you keep on getting it very wrong.

Based on their latest annual, Pro Tools makes up 16% of total revenues. That is significant. That does not include control surfaces or ancillary products. In fact, audio products are equal to video products at this point. Just look at page 3 in the 2010 annual. Pro Tools accounts for 16% of revenues while Media Composer is at 13%.

Pro Tools is effectively half of Avid at this point. That's more than a small part.

MC and Pro Tools combined is 29%. Where's the other 71% coming from then?

16% is small. It's not insignificant... but it's small. Mac sales are bigger part of Apple, and it's been pretty clear as of late how much attention they give those compared to iPhones.

All I'm saying is, Avid could sell Pro Tools and still be a big media/hardware company.